IFRS 9 Macroeconomic Scenario Service Different economic scenarios and their probabilities are crucial to calculate expected credit losses under IFRS 9. To meet regulatory requirements it is therefore key to have an objective and transparent view of the forward-looking distribution for the economy. We offer a solution for IFRS 9 scenarios specifically designed to meet the requirements of the accountancy standard. The advantages of our methodology are that it minimises P&L volatility, it is highly robust and it is based on a validated economic model. Unbiased scenarios designed specifically for IFRS 9 We combine over two decades of historic forecast errors from our industry-leading track record with our quantitative assessment of the risks facing the global and domestic economy to produce solid forward-looking distributions. We provide up to {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.app.lucidpress.com/dataSets/776').'IFRS9 XX scenarios', '{{IFRS9 XX scenarios}}')}} scenarios spanning the probability distribution of forecasts and expected lifetime of assets. Developed within our in-house Global Economic Model, the world’s leading globally integrated macro model, our IFRS 9 scenarios cover all key drivers of impairment across {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.app.lucidpress.com/dataSets/776').'IFRS9 XX countries', '{{IFRS9 XX countries}}')}} countries. Scenario probabilities are derived consistently within the methodology thus providing a transparent approach to calculating the mean of the loss distribution. Crucially, our methodology ensures that the only changes to scenarios from {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.app.lucidpress.com/dataSets/776').'IFRS9 from xxx to xxxx', '{{IFRS9 from xxx to xxxx}}')}} are due to a transparent assessment of emerging or receding risks, informed by our in-house Global Risk Survey and our wide range of analytical tools. Service features Why Oxford Economics Modelling approach. At the centre of our approach is our renowned Global Economic Model, which integrates individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, interest and exchange rates, capital flows and commodity prices. The model’s unique open-architecture framework enables us to assess the impacts of adverse scenarios on economic indicators and a range of asset classes. Validated model. The Global Economic Model is used by banks for stress tests published by a large number of authorities around the world, including the Federal Reserve, the European Banking Authority, the UK Prudential Regulation Authority, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Monetary Authority of Singapore. A trusted brand. An acknowledged world leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, our roster of over {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/413').'X,XXX clients (total)', '{{X,XXX clients (total)}}')}} clients includes leading companies across a range of industries, from consumer goods and retailers, to industrial manufacturing and energy and to financial institutions and professional services. An objective, independent view. As a privately owned firm, you are assured that our analysis comes with no political or institutional bias. Calibre of staff. Our team of more than {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/413').'XXX economists', '{{XXX economists}}')}} economists and analysts have extensive industry, financial, and public-sector experience and are expert at applying advanced and innovative economic and research tools to provide valuable insights into today's most pressing business, financial and policy issues. Quantitative rigour. We have long been a leader in quantitative analysis with over {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/413').'XX years established / XX year track record', '{{XX years established / XX year track record}}')}} years of experience conducting evidence-based research. Our clients rely on our services for business-critical activities such as forecasting, scenario framing, risk assessment, policy analysis and market sizing. Accuracy of our analysis. The most reliable, up-to-date data, leading-edge quantitative frameworks and our globally integrated macroeconomic model are the backbones of our industry-leading forecasting track record.
Six macroeconomic scenarios including {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.app.lucidpress.com/dataSets/776').'IFRS9 X upsides and X downsides', '{{IFRS9 X upsides and X downsides}}')}} around our baseline Scenario outputs covering the key drivers of impairment such as property prices, income gearing and unemployment rates Comprehensive reports that explicitly outline scenario assumptions and any changes from prior scenarios Quarterly updates to scenarios reflecting changes to the base case and emerging risks
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