Macro
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The Air Passenger Forecast Service is the most comprehensive set of projections on how the airline industry will evolve in the coming years, where more passengers are expected to fly in the next fifteen years than over the past one hundred. Jointly created by Tourism Economics and the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the service provides long-term forecasts of air passenger flows for almost {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/730').'APF - X.XXX country and region pairs', '{{APF - X.XXX country and region pairs}}')}} routes and total flows for {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/730').'APF - XXX countries', '{{APF - XXX countries}}')}} countries.
Filter your selection criteria and control how the results will be displayed. You can precisely select locations and indicators, choose the date range and frequency, and set advanced options for displaying results.
Numbers may be represented as absolutes, percentages, and even differences between time periods.
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Air Passenger Forecast Service
Passenger air travel forecasts for the 4,000 most travelled routes across the world
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What the service includes Quarterly FX risk scores. Updated monthly, based on historical data from {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/776').'FXRT/ forecast from YYYY', '{{FXRT/ forecast from YYYY}}')}} and our forecasts, providing a forward-looking indicator. Extensive databank. Comparable analysis for nearly {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/730').'APF - X.XXX country and region pairs', '{{APF - X.XXX country and region pairs}}')}} country and region pairs, with historical data from 2006 and {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/730').'APF - Forecast period', '{{APF - Forecast period}}')}} forecasts. The data covers air passenger flows as well as economic and demographic data by country and regional aggregate. Global Forecast Report. Includes detailed commentary from Tourism Economics and IATA featuring analysis of the baseline forecast plus the impacts of upside and downside alternative scenarios. Individual country reports. Providing supplementary detailed analysis for the top country markets. Global trend analysis. We produce two reports each year, one in April, covering long-term factors affecting passenger flows such as travel liberalization, demographics, and energy costs, and one in October, looking at near-term drivers, including the latest year-to-date outturns and recent changes in economic conditions. Robust methodology. The databank is based on vast, complementary data sets covering air passenger flows, and economic and demographic data by country and regional aggregate. Advanced analytical functions. Our web-based databank allows users to quickly build custom queries with complete flexibility and view the data in tables, charts, and maps. Economist support. We offer support to our clients to answer questions about our data or forecasts.
All data are annotated by source, date of update, and analyst.
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Searches can be saved for future reference and downloaded quickly to Excel and Adobe formats, and even shown on a heat map.
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Forecast series covered Summary passenger flows: total passengers, domestic passengers, international passengers. Economic drivers: GDP, real US$; GDP per capita, real USD; Population, total; % middle class households; Exchange rate, US$, Exchange rate, weighted average index; International split of passenger flows by short, medium, long, and ultra-long-haul.
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Living standards
Price of air travel
Service Coverage Air Passenger Forecasts provides hundreds of indicators for each origin-destination, including: The service provides {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/730').'APF - Forecast period', '{{APF - Forecast period}}')}} forecasts for almost {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/730').'APF - X.XXX country and region pairs', '{{APF - X.XXX country and region pairs}}')}} country pairs on an origin-destination basis. The main focus is on the largest country-pair relationships, those where at least 1,000 passengers a month currently travel between them (on a bi-directional basis). Forecasts also include almost {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/730').'APF - XXX below threshold country pairs', '{{APF - XXX below threshold country pairs}}')}} country-pair relationships that, while below the threshold of 1,000 passengers a month, we assess are likely to exceed it over the coming 20 years - the “markets of tomorrow,” which are mostly from the emerging world. Reports cover the following markets: Global, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Croatia, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States.
Forecasting framework Forecasts are based on our Global Economic Model and macro forecasts. Our approach distills the many factors that will shape air travel markets in the long run into three main drivers; doing so offers a simple but powerful framework to think about long-term trends in the industry. Almost every conceivable factor that will influence air travel markets in the long run, from shifting dynamics in energy markets to structural economic reforms, will affect air markets through one of the following channels:
Population and demographics
Software and service Global Data Workstation. A web-based application that provides a variety of data selection, heat map, chart visualisations, data downloads, data sharing, and personalisation features. All assets can be exported as image or Excel files. Excel Data Workstation. An add-in which allows users to import data selectively or make use of pre-built dashboards. Economist access. Our economists are available to provide guidance and answer your questions.
To find out more and get in touch with us, visit us at www.oxfordeconomics.com/air-passenger-forecasts
In addition to the standard offerings, we are able to create custom forecasts and scenarios based on your requirements.